The Great Wave: The Era of Radical Disruption and the Rise of the Outsider
Authors: Michiko Kakutani, Michiko Kakutani
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Overview
“The Great Wave: The Era of Radical Disruption and the Rise of the Outsider” explores the current historical moment as a period of profound change and uncertainty, akin to the tumultuous periods surrounding the Black Death, the Gilded Age, and the interwar period of the 20th century. Drawing on examples from politics, technology, culture, and social movements, the book argues that the anxieties and opportunities of this era are driven by a convergence of factors: the erosion of trust in institutions, the rise of outsider influence, and the disruptive effects of technological advancements, especially the rise of social media and artificial intelligence.
The book examines how the breakdown of traditional power structures and gatekeepers has empowered outsiders, leading to both positive changes (like the rise of artists from marginalized communities and the growth of grassroots movements) and the amplification of dangerous narratives (like misinformation and hate speech). It investigates the ways technology has become a double-edged sword, fostering connection and innovation while simultaneously creating filter bubbles, eroding privacy, and facilitating the spread of misinformation and conspiracy theories. The rise of Trump and right-wing populism is analyzed as a symptom of and accelerant to these larger trends, exploiting vulnerabilities in democratic institutions and the public’s eroding trust in traditional sources of authority.
The book concludes with a call for resilience and adaptability, suggesting that by learning from both successes and failures of the past and engaging in critical thinking, societies can harness the positive potential of outsiders and technology while mitigating the risks they pose to democracy, social stability, and the planet. The target audience is broad, encompassing anyone interested in understanding the forces shaping the present and the potential trajectories of the future. Its analysis of social and technological trends makes it particularly relevant to those working in fields like technology, policy, and media, offering insights into the challenges and opportunities of navigating an increasingly complex and interconnected world. Within its field, the book stands as an insightful examination of the dynamics of change and disruption at a time of great uncertainty.
Book Outline
1. Introduction
Hokusai’s “Great Wave” serves as a powerful symbol of both the destructive potential of unpredictable change and the enduring hope for stability and order. It highlights the anxieties felt by Japan during its opening to the world in the 19th century, mirroring the current global anxieties surrounding political, economic, and technological upheaval. The image’s persistent resonance across diverse cultures and its appropriation in various forms underscore its ability to capture the pervasive sense of unease and the simultaneous yearning for tranquility and transformation.
Key concept: The “Great Wave” by Katsushika Hokusai embodies anxieties about swift change, from its original context of 19th-century globalization to the modern anxieties surrounding radical disruption in an interconnected world.
2. Pirates and The New Frankenstein
Silicon Valley’s early ethos of antiestablishment “pirate” mentality and utopian ideals, epitomized by companies like Apple, fueled the rapid development and adoption of digital technology. However, this ethos has been gradually eroded by a focus on corporate growth, leading to the rise of tech giants and an ensuing crisis of public trust in institutions. The convergence of technological disruption and this decline in trust has amplified existing societal problems and given rise to new challenges.
Key concept: “It’s better to be a pirate than join the navy.” - Steve Jobs, Apple’s co-founder, used this metaphor to emphasize the importance of a counter-cultural, antiestablishment ethos.
3. Culture in the New Millennium
The rise of artists from marginalized communities signifies a cultural shift in the 21st century, where double or triple consciousness (drawing on plural cultural traditions) has become a strength rather than a burden. This development has not only enriched contemporary art across various mediums but also offers new perspectives on interpreting classic works, highlighting the importance of diverse voices and perspectives.
Key concept: “Cultural multiplicity is no longer seen as the problem, but as a solution – a solution to the confines of identity itself.” - Henry Louis Gates, Jr.
4. Broken Windows and Sliding Doors
The Overton window theory, which describes how ideas once considered radical can become mainstream, explains the normalization of both progressive social changes and extremist views. While demonstrating the potential for positive change, it also highlights the dangers of incremental normalization of dangerous ideas. This underscores the importance of informed public discourse and critical thinking in a rapidly changing world.
Key concept: The “Overton window” explains how once-radical ideas can become mainstream by gradually shifting the boundaries of acceptable public discourse. Think tanks and activists employ this theory to normalize ideas that were previously considered marginal or threatening.
5. The Resistance Strikes Back
The power of collective action and disruption, as demonstrated by the Black Lives Matter protests, the #MeToo movement, and other grassroots activist groups, can create “movement moments” that drive social and political change. Learning from past successes and failures of social movements is key to building momentum and effecting long-term institutional change.
Key concept: “If there is no struggle, there is no progress.” - Frederick Douglass
6. Outlaw Nation
America has a complex, often contradictory relationship with outsiders, from its celebration of rebellious figures in popular culture to the anxieties surrounding immigration and social change. This fascination with outlaws and renegades is rooted in the American frontier ethos, which prizes individualism and freedom. But this romanticization of outsiders also underscores a deep ambivalence toward change and diversity.
Key concept: “An outlaw can be defined as somebody who lives outside the law, beyond the law and not necessarily against it.” - Hunter S. Thompson
7. The Centrifugal Republic
Decentralization has played a significant role in shaping both the development of the internet and the dynamics of American political history. Decentralized networks, exemplified by the internet’s original architecture and the early ethos of Silicon Valley, promote resilience and adaptability. However, the rise of tech giants has led to the re-centralization of power and control, posing new challenges for democracy and individual autonomy.
Key concept: “Be water.” - Bruce Lee
8. Optimizing Marginality
Immigrants and other outsiders, unburdened by established rules and traditions, have played a pivotal role in driving innovation across various fields, from the arts and sciences to business and technology. Their “beginner’s mind” and fluency in multiple cultural vocabularies enable them to challenge conventional thinking and approach problems with a fresh perspective.
Key concept: “Immigrants, we get the job done.” - Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
9. Resilience in the VUCA-Verse
The current moment presents a critical juncture for society, marked by compounding crises and a looming paradigm shift. By learning from past successes (like the mobilization during WWII and the responses to past pandemics) and failures (like the 2008 financial crisis and the initial response to COVID-19) and embracing resilience and adaptability, we can make choices that promote positive change and a more sustainable and equitable future.
Key concept: “A time of crisis is not just a time of anxiety and worry. It gives a chance, an opportunity, to choose well or to choose badly.” - Desmond Tutu
10. Epilogue
Hokusai’s portrayal of Mount Fuji in his various prints, from its serene beauty in most images of the series Thirty-Six Views of Mount Fuji to the depiction of its destructive eruption in “The Appearance of Hoeizan,” offers a powerful metaphor for the challenges and opportunities of our own time. These images remind us of the importance of balancing hope with realism, recognizing the potential for both renewal and destruction inherent in moments of profound change.
Key concept: Hokusai’s print “The Appearance of Hoeizan” portrays the last eruption of Mount Fuji as a scene of chaotic destruction, reminding viewers that even symbols of permanence are susceptible to the unpredictable forces of nature.
Essential Questions
1. How does the current historical moment compare to other periods of upheaval and transformation?
This era, much like periods of upheaval throughout history, from the Black Death to the Gilded Age, is characterized by a breakdown of existing norms and institutions and the rise of disruptive forces. The specific factors at play in the current moment include the accelerating pace of technological change, the erosion of trust in established authorities, and the increasing interconnectedness of the world, which amplifies the impact of both positive and negative developments. These forces have created a sense of uncertainty and anxiety, similar to the feelings captured in Hokusai’s “Great Wave,” but also offer unprecedented opportunities for transformation and renewal.
2. How has the rise of outsider influence shaped the current historical moment?
Outsiders, fueled by a distrust of traditional institutions and empowered by technological tools, have played a pivotal role in driving both positive and negative changes. On the one hand, they have fostered innovation in fields like art, technology, and social movements, challenging established norms and amplifying marginalized voices. On the other hand, they have also contributed to the spread of misinformation, polarization, and violence, as seen in the rise of right-wing populism and extremist ideologies. The democratizing effects of the internet have lowered the barriers to entry for all sorts of actors, creating a complex and often chaotic landscape.
3. What role has technology played in shaping the dynamics of this era?
Technology has acted as a double-edged sword, fostering both unprecedented innovation and troubling disruption. It has accelerated the pace of change, empowering individuals and fostering global interconnectedness, but it has also created new vulnerabilities, from the erosion of privacy and the spread of misinformation to the rise of artificial intelligence, which poses existential risks to humanity. The book argues that the key is not to reject technology but to find ways to harness its potential while mitigating its risks through regulation, education, and a renewed emphasis on critical thinking and media literacy.
4. How has the rise of Trump and right-wing populism contributed to the instability of the current moment?
The rise of Trump and right-wing populism is presented as a symptom of and accelerant to the anxieties and grievances of the current moment. Trump exploited the breakdown of trust in institutions and the public’s susceptibility to misinformation and fear, using social media and other technological tools to amplify his message and solidify his base. His assault on democratic norms and his normalization of hate speech further polarized the country and eroded faith in traditional sources of authority. The book argues that the Republican Party’s embrace of Trump’s extreme views has had a corrosive effect on American democracy.
5. How can societies cultivate resilience and adaptability in this era of disruption?
The book calls for resilience and adaptability in the face of uncertainty, suggesting that societies can navigate the current moment by learning from both successes and failures of the past. It emphasizes the importance of informed public discourse, critical thinking, and media literacy in countering misinformation and polarization. It also stresses the need for bold action to address the climate crisis, protect democratic institutions, and create a more just and equitable world. The book suggests that by embracing diversity, fostering collaboration, and using technology responsibly, societies can create a more sustainable and hopeful future.
1. How does the current historical moment compare to other periods of upheaval and transformation?
This era, much like periods of upheaval throughout history, from the Black Death to the Gilded Age, is characterized by a breakdown of existing norms and institutions and the rise of disruptive forces. The specific factors at play in the current moment include the accelerating pace of technological change, the erosion of trust in established authorities, and the increasing interconnectedness of the world, which amplifies the impact of both positive and negative developments. These forces have created a sense of uncertainty and anxiety, similar to the feelings captured in Hokusai’s “Great Wave,” but also offer unprecedented opportunities for transformation and renewal.
2. How has the rise of outsider influence shaped the current historical moment?
Outsiders, fueled by a distrust of traditional institutions and empowered by technological tools, have played a pivotal role in driving both positive and negative changes. On the one hand, they have fostered innovation in fields like art, technology, and social movements, challenging established norms and amplifying marginalized voices. On the other hand, they have also contributed to the spread of misinformation, polarization, and violence, as seen in the rise of right-wing populism and extremist ideologies. The democratizing effects of the internet have lowered the barriers to entry for all sorts of actors, creating a complex and often chaotic landscape.
3. What role has technology played in shaping the dynamics of this era?
Technology has acted as a double-edged sword, fostering both unprecedented innovation and troubling disruption. It has accelerated the pace of change, empowering individuals and fostering global interconnectedness, but it has also created new vulnerabilities, from the erosion of privacy and the spread of misinformation to the rise of artificial intelligence, which poses existential risks to humanity. The book argues that the key is not to reject technology but to find ways to harness its potential while mitigating its risks through regulation, education, and a renewed emphasis on critical thinking and media literacy.
4. How has the rise of Trump and right-wing populism contributed to the instability of the current moment?
The rise of Trump and right-wing populism is presented as a symptom of and accelerant to the anxieties and grievances of the current moment. Trump exploited the breakdown of trust in institutions and the public’s susceptibility to misinformation and fear, using social media and other technological tools to amplify his message and solidify his base. His assault on democratic norms and his normalization of hate speech further polarized the country and eroded faith in traditional sources of authority. The book argues that the Republican Party’s embrace of Trump’s extreme views has had a corrosive effect on American democracy.
5. How can societies cultivate resilience and adaptability in this era of disruption?
The book calls for resilience and adaptability in the face of uncertainty, suggesting that societies can navigate the current moment by learning from both successes and failures of the past. It emphasizes the importance of informed public discourse, critical thinking, and media literacy in countering misinformation and polarization. It also stresses the need for bold action to address the climate crisis, protect democratic institutions, and create a more just and equitable world. The book suggests that by embracing diversity, fostering collaboration, and using technology responsibly, societies can create a more sustainable and hopeful future.
Key Takeaways
1. Disinformation and the Erosion of Trust
The rise of misinformation and the erosion of trust highlight the crucial need for critical thinking and media literacy. It is more important than ever to be able to distinguish between fact and fiction and to evaluate the credibility of information sources. The rise of artificial intelligence and its potential to generate both beneficial and harmful content makes this even more critical.
Practical Application:
AI engineers should engage in critical analysis of AI-generated narratives and develop tools to detect and mitigate the spread of misinformation and harmful content.
2. The Double-Edged Sword of Technology
Technological advancements, especially the rise of social media and artificial intelligence, have created unprecedented opportunities but also pose significant risks to society. While technology can foster connection, innovation, and civic engagement, it has also amplified polarization, misinformation, and surveillance. The development of AI raises new ethical dilemmas and necessitates proactive measures to ensure responsible development and deployment.
Practical Application:
Tech companies and AI developers should prioritize ethical considerations and incorporate safeguards against misuse and unintended consequences into the design and development of AI systems.
3. The Power of Decentralization
Decentralization promotes adaptability, resilience, and innovation, which are critical for navigating the uncertainties of the VUCA world. Both the internet’s original architecture and the early ethos of Silicon Valley championed decentralization. However, this ethos has been largely superseded by the rise of centralized tech giants. Reclaiming the principles of decentralization offers a way to foster innovation, empower individuals and communities, and create more robust and responsive systems.
Practical Application:
By adopting a decentralized, community-driven approach, developers can foster greater adaptability and resilience within AI systems while creating more inclusive and responsive products.
4. Optimizing Marginality
Outsiders, unburdened by established rules and traditions, play a crucial role in driving innovation and challenging conventional thinking. Their diverse experiences and perspectives enable them to see possibilities that others may overlook, offering fresh solutions to complex problems. Embracing diversity and creating opportunities for collaboration between insiders and outsiders is critical for fostering innovation.
Practical Application:
Promote diversity and inclusion within AI teams and foster open collaboration with experts from various disciplines to encourage out-of-the-box thinking and cross-cultural understanding.
5. Navigating the VUCA World
The current moment presents a critical juncture for society, marked by compounding crises like climate change, the erosion of democracy, and the COVID-19 pandemic. While these crises pose significant challenges, they also offer opportunities for transformative change. By learning from the successes and failures of the past, embracing resilience, and making informed choices, societies can navigate these tumultuous times and build a more sustainable and equitable future.
Practical Application:
Foster greater collaboration between scientists, policymakers, and technology developers to develop and deploy effective climate mitigation strategies.
1. Disinformation and the Erosion of Trust
The rise of misinformation and the erosion of trust highlight the crucial need for critical thinking and media literacy. It is more important than ever to be able to distinguish between fact and fiction and to evaluate the credibility of information sources. The rise of artificial intelligence and its potential to generate both beneficial and harmful content makes this even more critical.
Practical Application:
AI engineers should engage in critical analysis of AI-generated narratives and develop tools to detect and mitigate the spread of misinformation and harmful content.
2. The Double-Edged Sword of Technology
Technological advancements, especially the rise of social media and artificial intelligence, have created unprecedented opportunities but also pose significant risks to society. While technology can foster connection, innovation, and civic engagement, it has also amplified polarization, misinformation, and surveillance. The development of AI raises new ethical dilemmas and necessitates proactive measures to ensure responsible development and deployment.
Practical Application:
Tech companies and AI developers should prioritize ethical considerations and incorporate safeguards against misuse and unintended consequences into the design and development of AI systems.
3. The Power of Decentralization
Decentralization promotes adaptability, resilience, and innovation, which are critical for navigating the uncertainties of the VUCA world. Both the internet’s original architecture and the early ethos of Silicon Valley championed decentralization. However, this ethos has been largely superseded by the rise of centralized tech giants. Reclaiming the principles of decentralization offers a way to foster innovation, empower individuals and communities, and create more robust and responsive systems.
Practical Application:
By adopting a decentralized, community-driven approach, developers can foster greater adaptability and resilience within AI systems while creating more inclusive and responsive products.
4. Optimizing Marginality
Outsiders, unburdened by established rules and traditions, play a crucial role in driving innovation and challenging conventional thinking. Their diverse experiences and perspectives enable them to see possibilities that others may overlook, offering fresh solutions to complex problems. Embracing diversity and creating opportunities for collaboration between insiders and outsiders is critical for fostering innovation.
Practical Application:
Promote diversity and inclusion within AI teams and foster open collaboration with experts from various disciplines to encourage out-of-the-box thinking and cross-cultural understanding.
5. Navigating the VUCA World
The current moment presents a critical juncture for society, marked by compounding crises like climate change, the erosion of democracy, and the COVID-19 pandemic. While these crises pose significant challenges, they also offer opportunities for transformative change. By learning from the successes and failures of the past, embracing resilience, and making informed choices, societies can navigate these tumultuous times and build a more sustainable and equitable future.
Practical Application:
Foster greater collaboration between scientists, policymakers, and technology developers to develop and deploy effective climate mitigation strategies.
Suggested Deep Dive
Chapter: Pirates and The New Frankenstein
This chapter delves into the evolution of Silicon Valley’s ethos from a decentralized “pirate” culture to the dominance of centralized tech giants, offering valuable insights for AI engineers on the societal impact of technological advancements and the importance of considering ethical implications.
Memorable Quotes
Introduction. 8
The magic of Hokusai’s print resides in both its imaginative detail—the terrifying surge of the gigantic wave, looming over three small fishing boats like a huge, pouncing tiger—and its metaphorical clout.
Chapter 1. 13
“The crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born; in this interregnum a great variety of morbid symptoms appear.”
Chapter 2. 33
“It’s better to be a pirate than join the navy.”
Chapter 3. 50
“Cultural multiplicity is no longer seen as the problem, but as a solution – a solution to the confines of identity itself.”
Chapter 5. 86
“If there is no struggle, there is no progress.”
Introduction. 8
The magic of Hokusai’s print resides in both its imaginative detail—the terrifying surge of the gigantic wave, looming over three small fishing boats like a huge, pouncing tiger—and its metaphorical clout.
Chapter 1. 13
“The crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born; in this interregnum a great variety of morbid symptoms appear.”
Chapter 2. 33
“It’s better to be a pirate than join the navy.”
Chapter 3. 50
“Cultural multiplicity is no longer seen as the problem, but as a solution – a solution to the confines of identity itself.”
Chapter 5. 86
“If there is no struggle, there is no progress.”
Comparative Analysis
Kakutani’s “The Great Wave” resonates with works like Kranzberg’s exploration of technological neutrality, offering a nuanced perspective on how technology, while not inherently good or bad, can be wielded by outsiders to both positive and negative ends. Her focus on the rise of the outsider echoes themes in Moises Naim’s “The End of Power,” which details the decline of traditional hierarchies and the distribution of power in the 21st century. However, while Naim emphasizes the difficulties of wielding this newly distributed power, Kakutani highlights how outsiders have effectively leveraged technology and social movements to achieve significant social and political change. Kakutani’s analysis of political polarization and its relationship to democratic decline aligns with arguments made by scholars of authoritarianism like Milan W. Svolik, who examines the role of partisan loyalty in undermining democratic norms. Kakutani’s book uniquely combines these perspectives with a deep dive into cultural shifts, demonstrating how the rise of artists from marginalized communities reflects a broader embrace of diverse voices and perspectives.
Reflection
“The Great Wave” effectively captures the complexities and anxieties of our current moment, highlighting the role of technological disruption, political polarization, and the rise of outsider influence in shaping a VUCA world. Kakutani’s analysis of the interplay between technology, social change, and political dynamics provides valuable insights into the challenges and opportunities of this era. However, her focus on the negative aspects of technology and social media, while valid, could benefit from a deeper examination of their positive contributions, such as their role in fostering connection and enabling civic engagement. While her skepticism of Trump and right-wing populism is clearly articulated, her analysis could be strengthened by considering the underlying causes of their appeal, like economic anxieties and cultural grievances, rather than solely attributing their rise to manipulation and misinformation. Overall, “The Great Wave” offers a thought-provoking framework for understanding the currents of change shaping our world and underscores the need for resilience, adaptability, and responsible use of technology as we navigate the challenges and opportunities of an uncertain future.
Flashcards
What is ‘allatonceness’ as defined by Marshall McLuhan?
The feeling that everything is happening simultaneously.
What does VUCA stand for?
Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity.
Explain the Overton Window theory.
The theory that describes how once-radical ideas can become mainstream by gradually shifting the boundaries of acceptable public discourse.
What is the QAnon conspiracy theory?
The belief that the world is run by a cabal of Satan-worshipping child molesters.
What is doomscrolling?
Intense use of social media, often characterized by prolonged exposure to negative or distressing content.
What is skim-watching?
Watching videos or listening to recordings at an accelerated speed.
Explain ‘leaderless resistance’.
A decentralized model of organization where individuals operate independently and collaborate on a project without central leadership or control.
Define “brain drain”.
The mass departure of skilled workers or professionals from a particular region or country, often due to unfavorable economic or political conditions.
What is ‘allatonceness’ as defined by Marshall McLuhan?
The feeling that everything is happening simultaneously.
What does VUCA stand for?
Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity.
Explain the Overton Window theory.
The theory that describes how once-radical ideas can become mainstream by gradually shifting the boundaries of acceptable public discourse.
What is the QAnon conspiracy theory?
The belief that the world is run by a cabal of Satan-worshipping child molesters.
What is doomscrolling?
Intense use of social media, often characterized by prolonged exposure to negative or distressing content.
What is skim-watching?
Watching videos or listening to recordings at an accelerated speed.
Explain ‘leaderless resistance’.
A decentralized model of organization where individuals operate independently and collaborate on a project without central leadership or control.
Define “brain drain”.
The mass departure of skilled workers or professionals from a particular region or country, often due to unfavorable economic or political conditions.